Expect a drier 2009-10 winter

STORMTRACKER WEATHER LAB - Last January Toledo received 30.7 inches of snow. That's just below the amount of snow we would receive in the Glass City for a whole winter season.

It was the coldest January since 1994.

"Last January the jet stream set up where the same storms continued to blow over the same area," said Gary Garnet of the National Weather Service in Cleveland. "While the jet stream could influence our forecast again this year, the chances are less likely due to the El Nino effect."

"El Nino is a condition of the water temperature in the central Pacific Ocean when the waters warmer than average we describe this as El Nino conditions," added Robert LaPlante.

Though people may not be able to perceive a huge temperature difference, the expected El Nino conditions would result in a warmer winter than usual.

"What it means is probably a few less storm systems than what we normally get and fewer arctic outbreaks," said Garnet.

The amount of shoveling we have to endure may not be quite as bad this year. Both the National Weather Service and the Old Farmer's Almanac agree it's going to be drier than normal winter.

"We expect generally a drier winter than average with less snowfall," LaPlante said.

AccuWeather, another company that promotes their long range forecasts, predicts the Toledo area will experience a bone-chilling winter with normal to above normal snowfall. That's somewhat in line with the Weather Almanac, but differs from the National Weather Service.

"Long range forecast for winters are extremely difficult to do," Garnet said.

Clearly the wild card in our long-range winter climate outlook is El Nino. The El Nino will persist through the winter and be a minor to moderate event.

Temperatures for the winter will be near normal because of the El Nino and we will definitely not see as much snowfall this year.

Northwest Ohio receives on average 37.4 inches of snowfall a season. Taking everything into consideration, we'll get about 25 inches of snow for the upcoming winter of 2009-10.