Expect a moderate winter El Nino

STORMTRACKER WEATHER LAB - Every so often you hear a forecaster mention the term El Nino when discussing the forecast - a weather cycle that occurs every three to seven years, and that includes this year.

This year, our weather pattern is controlled by the El Nino phenomenon. During an El Nino cycle, the water is one to four degrees warmer in the Pacific Ocean near the equator. That warmer water also heats up the air above it.

"For Northwest Ohio, expect generally a drier winter than average," said Robert LaPlante, of the National Weather Service Cleveland office.

Generally, El Nino begins in the summer and peaks in the winter, then fades out by late spring-early summer. This year's El Nino began in June and is expected to be "moderate."

By looking at El Nino years from the past, meteorologists and weather forecasters are better able to understand how it will affect individual areas.

Back during the winter season of 1982-83 and 1997-98 Northwest Ohio experienced strong El Nino cycles.

"Well, in those years that you mentioned, those were stong El Nino years, and that meant the water was quite a bit warmer than normal out in the Pacific Ocean," LaPlante said. "This year we are expecting a moderate intensity event, so the effects of the El Nino will be less than those intense seasons."

The average Toledo annual snowfall total is 37.4 inches. Considering El Nino, the 2009-10 snowfall total will likely be around 30 inches or below.